Every industry runs in cycles. It doesn’t matter whether it’s media, technology, real estate, or fashion, the same rhythm plays out again and again. There is emergence, there is advancement, and eventually, there is decline.

For entrepreneurs, this reality is not academic. It’s life or death. Enter at the wrong stage, and no amount of intelligence, hard work, or funding can protect you from collapse.

The Cycle of Industries

1. Emergence
In the emergence phase, industries are raw and full of chaos. Systems don’t work. Regulations are incomplete. Risks are high. But the opportunity is equally high for those who position themselves early.

2. Advancement
In advancement, things stabilize. Structures fall into place, regulation matures, funding becomes accessible, and exponential growth follows. This is the stage of maturity and wealth creation.

3. Decline
Decline is unforgiving. Saturation sets in, consumer behavior shifts, and the old models no longer work. The market has already moved on, and nothing, not energy, not strategy, not even billions in capital can restore it.

The Newspaper Example

Take print newspapers. Once a thriving industry, today it is a textbook case of decline.

Imagine you had an uncle as Vice President of America. He pulls strings with a U.S. bank, and suddenly you have $20 billion to build a newspaper empire. Would you succeed? No.

Why? Because consumer behavior has already shifted. People don’t buy print newspapers anymore. The audience has gone digital. The industry is in decline, and decline is merciless.

This is the difference between effort and timing. You can pour resources into a dying model, but you’ll only accelerate your losses.

The Illusion of Capital

Entrepreneurs often assume that “enough money can solve anything.” But capital without timing is like pouring water into a basket. It doesn’t matter how much you add, it will never hold.

Money in the wrong industry is wasted money. The timing of your entry matters as much as the funding behind it.

The Hidden Risk of Ignoring Cycles

The riskiest move in business is not the risk of starting. It’s the risk of starting in the wrong season.

• Enter too early, and you’ll drown in chaos.
• Enter too late, and the market has already shifted.
• Enter in decline, and you’ll spend years propping up a dying model.

Industry awareness is not optional. It is survival.

Timing vs. Effort

Business brilliance is not just about hard work, deep strategy, or powerful connections. It is about knowing where the wave is heading.

Timing is everything. Enter at emergence, and you endure pain but position for the future. Enter at advancement, and you ride momentum. Enter at decline, and you fight a losing battle.

The Final Word

If you want your business to last, don’t just ask: “Can I start?” Ask: “What season is this industry in?”

Because in business, it’s not just about effort. It’s about timing.

Dr. Smith Ezenagu is the Chairman of Esso Group, a diversified conglomerate shaping real estate, finance, education, and media. Dr. Smith Ezenagu is recognized as a real estate & investment mogul, life coach, and private equity expert. He leads Esso Group and its subsidiaries: Esso Properties (awarded Nigeria’s Most Innovative Real Estate Company in 2024 and recognized as the best real estate company in Nigeria), Esso School of Enterprise (the leading institution equipping entrepreneurs), and Esso Capital (delivering smart, trusted financial solutions across Nigeria).