Every industry runs in cycles. It doesn’t matter whether it is technology, fashion, energy, or real estate, the same pattern repeats itself, emergence, advancement, and decline.

Understanding this cycle is not just theory. It’s survival. Because if you enter an industry at the wrong phase, no amount of strategy will save you. And if you don’t know which stage you’re in right now, you’ll misinterpret signals that could have helped you position for the future.

The Three Phases of the Industry Cycle

1. Emergence: Raw and Unstructured
The first phase is emergence. It’s messy. Systems are weak. Regulations are few. Finance is scarce. Things don’t work the way they should, and the risk is high.

This is exactly where Nigerian real estate is today. You cannot walk into a bank with land and raise capital for estate development. Mortgages barely exist in practice. Regulation is incomplete. And every entrepreneur must accept that what they are experiencing is not “failure of the industry” but the normal symptoms of emergence.

Emergence is the foundation-laying phase. It is uncomfortable, but it is also filled with opportunity.

2. Advancement: Structure and Growth
The second phase is advancement. This is where industries click into place. The government steps in with policies. Regulation becomes standardized. Mortgages work. Banks begin to see assets as credible collateral. Funding flows more easily. Risk reduces, and exponential growth becomes possible.

When you study developed real estate markets across the world, this is the stage that unlocked their biggest growth. Nigeria will get there. The question is who will still be standing strong when it does?

3. Decline: Reinvention or Death
The third phase is decline. Industries saturate, growth slows, and the old way of doing things no longer works. Decline is not death, but it is a call to reinvent. This is when innovation, pivoting, and fresh models are not optional, they are survival.

The Nigerian Reality: Still in Emergence

Too many people complain that “Nigerian real estate doesn’t work.” But the truth is, it’s not broken. It’s just emerging.

• Mortgages don’t function properly.
• Banks don’t fund developers using land as collateral.
• Regulation is still developing.

These are not failures. These are signs of emergence. Every industry must pass through this stage.

For entrepreneurs, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. The challenge is that you cannot scale as fast as you want. The opportunity is that those who endure now, who position themselves during the chaos, will be the ones to dominate when advancement arrives.

Positioning for the Future

If you understand the cycle, you’ll know how to position. Advancement will not reward those who waited until it was safe. Advancement will reward those who endured the chaos of emergence.

This means that today, in Nigeria, the most important business skills are:

• Patience: knowing that structures will come, but not overnight.
• Grit: staying consistent even when the environment feels raw and uncertain.
• Vision: positioning yourself so that when the industry advances, you are already seen as a leader.

The Mistake of Waiting for Safety

Many entrepreneurs are waiting for mortgages to work, for regulations to stabilize, for banks to start funding before they enter real estate. But here’s the truth: when that time comes, the opportunity will no longer be the same.

If you wait for advancement before you act, you will only ever play catch-up. Advancement rewards those who endured the pain of emergence.

The Call to Reinvent

And eventually, even after advancement, every industry faces decline. That is not bad news. Decline is the call to reinvent. It is the signal to pivot, innovate, or fade away.

Builders who understand this are never blindsided. They know decline is not the end, it is simply the next phase of the cycle.

Final Word

Nigerian real estate is not broken. It is simply in its emergence phase. Weak systems, poor regulation, and limited financing are not failures, they are the birth pains of an industry in the making.

The real question is: will you still be standing when advancement comes? Will your company be one of the few that endured the chaos, positioned early, and became a leader?

Because in the industry cycle, the winners are never those who entered when it was safe. The winners are those who understood the season, survived the uncertainty, and built for the future.

Dr. Smith Ezenagu is the Chairman of Esso Group, a diversified conglomerate shaping real estate, finance, education, and media. Dr. Smith Ezenagu is recognized as a real estate & investment mogul, life coach, and private equity expert. He leads Esso Group and its subsidiaries: Esso Properties (awarded Nigeria’s Most Innovative Real Estate Company in 2024 and recognized as the best real estate company in Nigeria), Esso School of Enterprise (the leading institution equipping entrepreneurs), and Esso Capital (delivering smart, trusted financial solutions across Nigeria).