Every entrepreneur begins with a business plan. Pages of projections. Fancy charts. A detailed breakdown of how the business will grow, who the customers are, and how much money will come in.
But here’s the hard truth: 99.99% of business plans fail at first contact with the market.
It doesn’t matter how rich you are, how smart you are, or how confident you feel. A business plan is only a collection of assumptions. Assumptions that reality is waiting to test.
Why Business Plans Fail
Most plans are built on imagination, not validation. You assume everybody in Lagos will need your product. You assume people will line up at your launch. You assume the numbers you’ve written down will play out exactly.
But when you finally take your product into the market, reality responds differently. Sometimes brutally. People don’t want what you built. Customers ignore your adverts. The demand you thought was obvious turns out to be non-existent.
This is the first heartbreak of entrepreneurship.
The lesson? A plan is not reality. A plan is a hypothesis. And until the market validates that hypothesis, it is just a piece of paper.
The Startup Is a Search, Not a Company
This is why I emphasize: a startup is not a company.
Most founders make this mistake. They register their business with CAC, print business cards, rent an office, and begin to parade themselves as CEOs. They think registration equals readiness.
But a startup is not a small company waiting to grow big. A startup is a search.
What are you searching for? Two things:
- A repeatable model. Something you can do year after year and it works.
- A scalable model. Something that grows bigger when you add more resources.
Until you find these two, you are still in the startup phase. Everything else you do, branding, hiring, opening branches will only put pressure on a system that is not yet stable.
A company is born the day your business model is both repeatable and scalable. Until then, you’re still experimenting.
The Danger of Falling in Love with Your Idea
One of the greatest dangers for founders is falling in love with their first idea.
You believe the market “must” want your product. You’ve invested your energy, your pride, your identity into it. So when the market pushes back, you ignore the signals.
This rigidity kills startups faster than lack of money.
At the startup stage, you must be flexible. You must be willing to pivot. To adjust your product. To even change your entire model if necessary. Flexibility is survival. Rigidity is death.
The market doesn’t care about your plan. It cares about its own needs. Your job is not to defend your assumptions, it is to validate them, or replace them.
Startups Are Built on Assumptions. Companies Are Built on Validation.
Here’s the difference:
- Startup = Assumption. Everything you believe about the product, the customers, and the revenue is still untested.
- Company = Validation. The market has proved you right. Customers buy repeatedly. The model scales predictably.
A startup is like a scientist in a lab, running experiments. Sometimes you hit gold. Most times, you don’t. But if you keep testing with honesty and openness, you eventually find a formula that works.
The day your business can put ₦10 into marketing and reliably bring back ₦20, and then do it again with ₦100 and get ₦200, you have transitioned. That’s when you stop being a startup and become a company.
Practical Advice for Founders in the Startup Stage
- Respect the cycle. At the seed stage, focus on research and funding, not selling. At the startup stage, focus on validation, not branding. Growth comes later.
- Stay flexible. Don’t fall in love with your first idea. Most first ideas are wrong. Be ready to pivot.
- Validate with real customers. Opinions don’t count. Even your own belief doesn’t count. The only validation that matters is a paying customer and a repeat one.
- Delay unnecessary costs. Offices, logos, furniture don’t make you a company. Validation does. Spend wisely.
- Measure what matters. Don’t celebrate likes and followers. Measure sales, retention, and scalability.
The Mindset Shift You Need
Entrepreneurship is not about proving your brilliance. It is about discovering the truth.
Your business plan is not the truth. It is your first guess at the truth.
The entrepreneurs who thrive are those who enter with humility, ready to learn, ready to adapt, and ready to let go of what doesn’t work.
That humility is not weakness. It is wisdom.
Conclusion
The market is the final examiner. Not your assumptions. Not your spreadsheets. Not your investor pitch deck.
The real danger is not starting small. The real danger is acting like a company when you’re still a startup.
So the next time you look at your beautiful business plan, remind yourself, this is not reality. This is a hypothesis. My real job is to test it.
Do that with honesty and discipline, and you’ll survive where 99.99% of others fail.
Dr. Smith Ezenagu is the Chairman of Esso Group, a diversified conglomerate shaping real estate, finance, education, and media. Dr. Smith Ezenagu is recognized as a real estate & investment mogul, life coach, and private equity expert. He leads Esso Group and its subsidiaries: Esso Properties (awarded Nigeria’s Most Innovative Real Estate Company in 2024 and recognized as the best real estate company in Nigeria), Esso School of Enterprise (the leading institution equipping entrepreneurs), and Esso Capital (delivering smart, trusted financial solutions across Nigeria).
